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2018年4月27日 星期五

MORNING RECON: China Deploys Advanced DF-26; Iran Deal: If You Can't Fix It, Don't Nix It; It's Not Just the Forward Deployed; Kim Jong-un Crosses DMZ

4/27/2018
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Morning Recon


Good Thursday morning and welcome to MORNING RECON.  On this day in 1813, American troops capture the capital of Upper Canada in the Battle of York (present day Toronto, Canada). The Battle of York was fought in York (present-day Toronto), the capital of the province of Upper Canada (present-day Ontario), between United States forces and the British defenders of York during the War of 1812. U.S. forces under Zebulon Pike were able to defeat the defenders of York, comprising a British-led force under the command of Roger Hale Sheaffe, combined with a small group of Ojibway allies. Pike would die during the battle at just 34 years of age.

RealClearDefense Today's Exclusive Stories:  
Today's Top Stories

NATIONAL

Pompeo in Brussels in Show of Support for NATO
By Lesley Wroughton & Robin Emmott, Reuters: "Barely 12 hours after being sworn in U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo went straight to NATO headquarters in Brussels in what European allies saw as strong support for an institution that U.S. President Donald Trump once called obsolete."

New Concerns About U.S. Central Command's Access to Weather Satellite Data​
By Sandra Erwin, SpaceNews: "U.S. military forces in the Middle East and South Asia receive weather data courtesy of the European Eumetsat meteorological satellite organization that provides coverage over the Indian Ocean."

Lawmakers Push Pentagon on Reforms, AI, New Missiles
By Paul McCleary, Breaking Defense: "The push from Capitol Hill follows a year of the Pentagon promising to do more, and do it quickly, when it comes to developing and buying next-generation technologies."

Navy Could Extend Life Of USS Nimitz Past 50 Years
By Tyler Rogoway, The WarZone: "The House Armed Service Committee wants the Navy to figure out a way to make sure there are 12 supercarriers in the fleet going into the mid 2020s."

Lawmakers Want Army to Re-Dye Old Uniforms
By Matthew Cox, Military.com: "The Army is transitioning to the OCP uniform in 2019, but the service still possesses a inventory of UCP products."

It's Not Just the Forward Deployed
By Joseph Aucoin, Proceedings Magazine: "While the investigations in the aftermath of the loss of 17 sailors addressed many of the issues that may have led to the collisions, there were other factors."

Dead Drop: April 27
By Anonymous, The Cipher Brief: "SPEAKING OF SNOWDEN: Bill Evanina, director of the National Counterintelligence and Security Center spoke at the Aspen Center on April 18th and said that the damage from Snowden's leaks continues to grow.."

Boeing's Strategy for the Future
By Loren Thompson, Forbes: "Federal support for defense and civil space programs is in an upswing, while overseas demand for U.S. weapons is rising steadily."

Iconic Pen Used by Military, Made by Blind People Turns 50
By Barbara Slavin, Al-Monitor: "Anyone who's served in the military, worked for the federal government or addressed a package at the post office is familiar with the handiwork. But they might not have realized that all the ubiquitous SKILCRAFT U.S. Government pens were made by the visually impaired."

INTERNATIONAL

U.S., ISRAEL: 
Mattis, Receiving Liberman, Warns of 'likely' Conflict Between Israel and Iran

By Michael Wilner, The Jerusalem Post: "Preparing for the possible imminent collapse of the Iran nuclear deal, Boeing Co. has been signing contracts with other buyers, including Iran's adversaries across the Persian Gulf, to cushion the loss of $17 billion in sales to Iran."

U.S., IRAN: Boeing Finds Other Buyers As Prospects for Iran Sales Dwindle
By Barbara Slavin, Al-Monitor: "Preparing for the possible imminent collapse of the Iran nuclear deal, Boeing Co. has been signing contracts with other buyers, including Iran's adversaries across the Persian Gulf, to cushion the loss of $17 billion in sales to Iran."

U.S., AFGHANISTAN: State Urges Taliban yet Again to 'Run for Office'
By Bill Roggio, FDD's Long War Journal: "Just hours after the Taliban announced the launch of this year's spring offensive, named the "Al Khandaq Jihadi operations," the U.S. Department of State issued a statement urging the Taliban to lay down its arms, conduct negotiations, and join Afghanistan's election process."

CHINA: China Deploys Advanced DF-26 Missile
From AP: "China's missile force is largely designed to degrade Taiwan's defenses in a move to conquer the self-governing island, while holding off U.S. military support."

KOREAN PENINSULA: 
Kim Jong-un Crosses DMZ: Says Koreas on Starting Line of a New History

By Foster Klug, AP: "South Korea has acknowledged that the most difficult sticking point between the Koreas has been North Korea's level of denuclearization commitment. Kim has reportedly said that he wouldn't need nuclear weapons if his government's security could be guaranteed and external threats were removed."

COMMENTARY & ANALYSIS

Deployable Intelligence Support Element
in Support of the Army Service Component Command

By Christopher Synowiez & Kyle Gordy, Small Wars Journal: "The DISE has to be tailorable and scalable based on the contingency and requirements of the JTF HQ it is supporting."

The Iran Deal: If You Can't Fix It, Don't Nix It
By Blake Fleisher, RealClearDefense: "There is nothing wrong with threatening to walk away from such a deeply flawed agreement. However, leaving the agreement would be not only illogical but potentially dangerous."

Iran's 'Admit Nothing, Deny Everything, Make Counter-Accusations' Tour
By Norman T. Roule, The Cipher Brief: "Iran's avuncular Foreign Minister Javad Zarif is about to conclude a six-day visit to New York during which he has conducted a furious outreach to every conceivable advocate of the Iran nuclear deal, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)."

Russia's Use of Armed Contractors in Syria Gives the U.S. Leverage
By James Durso, RealClearDefense: "Why was Wagner Group there? Because the Russians may have drawn the wrong lessons from the U.S. use of contractors in Iraq and Afghanistan."

Putin Considered Joining NATO
By Gianpaulo Coletti, UK Defence Journal: "Moscow, 2000: Russia and NATO, usually these two words don't generally imply an alliance however back in 2000, the idea was floated."

Grand Strategy: All Along the Polar Silk Road
By Mike Scrafton, The Strategist (ASPI): "Whatever criticisms and grievances the U.S. has with China's contemporary trade, investment and intellectual property policies, or how distastefully Western commentators regard one-party rule, the true challenge for the U.S. is to marshal its political and economic strengths behind a comparable long-term strategy."

Has Pakistan Truly Tamed Its Tribal Frontier?​
By Bennett Seftel, The Cipher Brief: "Maligned as a bastion of extremism and a top terrorist safe haven, Pakistan's Federally Administrated Tribal Areas (FATA), along the country's northwestern border with Afghanistan, have endured a significant transformation in the last few years."

With Islamic State in Decline, What's Al-qaeda's Next Move?
By Tore Refslund Hamming, War on the Rocks: "In the past five years, only one attack in a Western country — the Kouachi brothers' attack against Charlie Hebdo in January 2015 — can be connected to al-Qaeda."
 
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